Six Nations Round Up
With two rounds of the Six Nations over and done with, and squads being named for this weekend’s third round matches, the time is right to assess the runners and the riders so far in the 2011 Six Nations. With the World Cup looming just over the horizon, this year’s Six Nations has been perhaps more eagerly anticipated than any other over the last few years.
The first match of the third round of the Six Nations is an interesting encounter between the Italians and the Welsh in Rome. Despite a highly impressive performance by the Italians against the Irish in the opening week, where they came within minutes of recording a historic victory, they were then beaten easily by England who had no trouble breaching the Italian defence time after time. What were initially optimistic signs in their performance against Ireland could arguably be put down to Irish inadequacies as much as Italian proficiencies, and their inability to put up any kind of competition to England a week later means they will probably end up playing a winner takes all match with Scotland to avoid taking home the wooden spoon. However, a strong performance against a Welsh side could create the perfect platform for the Italians to try and save their Six Nations. With the Welsh forwards underperforming, Italy will look to establish dominance at the set piece and look to breach the defence of Wales from there. Italian captain Sergio Parisse, as well as stand out players such as Martin Castrogiovanni and Mirco Bergamasco will all need to be on top form if Italy are to stand any chance of coming out of the game with a positive result.
The Welsh have been labelled as many things over the years, and perhaps the most apt at the moment would be ‘mercurial’. Once a label only attributed the French, it certainly now applies to those West of the Severn. Whilst they were poor against England in an opening week loss, they played with such tempo a week later that Scotland were completely outplayed. It is difficult to predict which Welsh side will turn up on the day, and much of this can be judged on the opening 20 minutes of their games, which, if played on the back foot, will likely continue for the remaining 60 minutes. However, a backline which boasts the ability and skill of players such as James Hook and the powerful direct running of Jamie Roberts, is arguably unstoppable on its day, and it’s unlikely the Italian defence will be able to cope with the tempo they impose. For Wales to ensure they can get the best out of their talented backline, they must compete at the breakdown, and gain parity at the set piece, which is much easier said than done against the very strong scrummagers of Italy. If Wales are to keep their slim hopes of winning the Six Nations alive, then they must win convincingly this weekend, and put in a performance which they can carry over to the last two rounds and improve upon if they are to stand a good chance of beating both Ireland and France, a daunting task, but one they must step up to if they are to come out of this championship with an optimistic eye cast towards the forthcoming World Cup.
The second, and without doubt, most important match of the weekend sees the exciting French travel to the physical English, in a game dubbed as a championship decider. As any patriotic Englishman would do, I will save the best till the last, or to any of our French readers, gracefully allow your team priority over ours, and look first at the performance of the French. Seen by many as the pre-tournament favourites, the French have done little to defy expectations and have performed well, if not spectacular, in both of their opening fixtures, firstly beating Scotland 34-21 in Paris, and then travelling to Dublin to record a hard fought 25-22 victory over the Irish. Whilst ‘Les Bleus’ were full of their traditional attacking flair, and coupled with arguably the strongest scrummagers in the Six Nations creating a decent platform for them to launch their attacks from, they suffered defensively when being counter-attacked against, lacking their usual defensive discipline when the field became broken. It is something which France Defensive Coach Dave Ellis will look to resolve before they confront the free-scoring England this weekend, as long gone are the days when the English looked afraid to run the ball from anywhere within their own half. For France to win at Twickenham, they will be looking to gain at least a parity with England at scrum time before giving the ball to their big ball carriers such as Imanol Harinordoquy and Sebastien Chabal, and then look to exploit spaces in the English defence with the pace and skill of Maxime Medard.
The English on the other hand have carried on their impressive form from the Autumn Internationals and started the Six Nations with an energy and physicality, not to mention confidence, not seen in many English sides since the legendary 2003 side brought home the World Cup. Backing up an impressive 26-19 win over Wales in a fiery Cardiff, they ran in eight tries in a rampant 59-13 victory over the Italians at Twickenham. With six tries to his name in the two opening games alone, Chris Ashton has quickly made a name for himself as one of the most lethal finishers in world rugby at the moment, and will almost certainly be a marked man against the French this weekend. England have been quick to shrug off the tag of favourites and maintain they will approach this game in the same way they did against both Wales and Italy. Apart from France’s obvious strengths in the scrum and back three, England will also have to contend with the size and power of France’s centre combination of Aurelien Rougerie and Yannick Jauzion. England will likely pair the strength of Mike Tindall and the defensive abilities of Shontayne Hape together at centre in an attempt to nullify the ball carrying ability and threat the French midfield poses. Key for England this weekend will not to be focus on the fact the winner of this match will be clear favourites not only for the championship, but also the Grand Slam, and to ensure that they carry on doing the basics well, with their effectiveness at the breakdown laying the foundations for many of their tries against Italy, and concentrating on ensuring that the step up in opposition does not cause a step back in their progression as a confident team who look to run the ball rather than aimlessly kick away possession.
The last game of the weekend sees wooden spoon candidates Scotland host an underperforming Irish side, with both teams looking to put their indifferent performances behind them. Whilst Scotland sparkled on the counter-attack against the French in Paris, no easy task, it was never going to be enough to earn them a rare away win. Whilst for years they relied on the boot of firstly Chris Paterson, and then more recently Dan Parks, Andy Robinson looks to be developing a long overdue running game with the Scots, the introduction of youngsters such as Ruaridh Jackson and Joe Ansbro. However, whilst in the game against the French Scotland showed signs of improvement, a week later and they capitulated in a 24-6 loss to the Welsh at home, a game in which the one -sided score line even flattered their poor performance, signalling that Scotland have yet to find any consistency to their performances. Their chances against Ireland rest solely on the Scotland that turns up on Sunday, if the error strewn side who looked bereft of confidence against the Welsh turn up, then Scotland must prepare themselves for an even heavier loss than they suffered previously, however, if the Scotland side who stretched France’s defence and looked dangerous with ball in hand against a broken field turn up, then an upset could be on the cards.
Ireland’s campaign so far can be summed up completely in one word; indifferent. They stuttered to a very unimpressive victory over the Italians in the opening week, a late Ronan O’Gara drop goal saving Irish blushes, yet played scintillating rugby at times against the French a week later at the Aviva Stadium, but couldn’t convert their higher try count into a much needed win. As a team which responds highly to the confidence levels within the team, the Irish are in a poor position going into this round of matches after an unconvincing victory over a team they very nearly lost to, and a narrow loss to a superior French side, despite them playing some of the best rugby of the championship so far. This creates an interesting match when they come up against the Scots this weekend who put in an abject performance against the Welsh last week, and despite Ireland’s lack of self belief at the moment, it would take a brave man to put his money on anything other than an Irish victory. Despite what current results and performances may say, an on form Irish back line, led by the ever-present Brian O’Driscoll, are more than a match for a less than water-tight Scottish defence.
Predictions:
Italy vs Wales – Wales by 10 points.
England vs France – England by less than 7 points.
Scotland vs Ireland – Ireland by more than 7 points.